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MANIFOLD
10 years before AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will still be less mainstream than global warming was in 2015
9
Ṁ190Ṁ231
2300
84%
chance

One of the questions from https://jacyanthis.com/big-questions.

Resolves according to my judgement of whether the criteria have been met, taking into account clarifications from @JacyAnthis, who made those predictions. (The goal is that they'd feel comfortable betting to their credance in this market, so I want the resolution criteria to match their intention.)

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Well, no. AGI is less than 3 years away. AGI risk debate in 2017 was not mainstream

The debates in 2023 are p non mainstream, sooo

Both will be dead ideologies due to peak oil. AI will still exist I suppose.