By at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 2015
8
390Ṁ2952999
20%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Copied over from Elicit
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
@firstuserhere All credit goes to Brian Tomasik for the question! Ooh what happened in your discussions?
@NoaNabeshima not all! After all, i recall this market when i bring the question up with people! Credit to you also
Related questions
Related questions
Will we get AGI before 2027?
38% chance
Will we get AGI before 2026?
17% chance
Will we get AGI before 2028?
44% chance
Will we get AGI before 2028?
40% chance
Will we get AGI before 2026?
15% chance
Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?
57% chance
The probability of "extremely bad outcomes e.g., human extinction" from AGI will be >5% in next survey of AI experts
73% chance
By when will we have AGI?
Will we get AGI before 2030?
61% chance
Will humans create AGI, either directly or indirectly, within the next 24 months?
16% chance