By at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 2015
8
Ṁ390Ṁ2952999
20%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Copied over from Elicit
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Will we get AGI before 2029?
24% chance
Will we get AGI before 2030?
30% chance
Will we get AGI before 2035?
54% chance
Will we get AGI before 2027?
4% chance
Will we get AGI before 2040?
69% chance
Will we get AGI before 2039?
67% chance
Will we get AGI before 2037?
61% chance
Will we get AGI before 2041?
71% chance
Will we get AGI before 2038?
64% chance
Will we get AGI before 2042?
73% chance
Sort by:
@firstuserhere All credit goes to Brian Tomasik for the question! Ooh what happened in your discussions?
@NoaNabeshima not all! After all, i recall this market when i bring the question up with people! Credit to you also
People are also trading
Related questions
Will we get AGI before 2029?
24% chance
Will we get AGI before 2030?
30% chance
Will we get AGI before 2035?
54% chance
Will we get AGI before 2027?
4% chance
Will we get AGI before 2040?
69% chance
Will we get AGI before 2039?
67% chance
Will we get AGI before 2037?
61% chance
Will we get AGI before 2041?
71% chance
Will we get AGI before 2038?
64% chance
Will we get AGI before 2042?
73% chance