By at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 2015

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I am confused by this question since the US has been 10 years behind the EU on global warming, and perhaps even further on privacy/tech issues. So the question is where is the mainstream debate: US, EU, global, or just academia?

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This market's title is so well phrased. I've used this question IRL many times, interesting discussions. Great market

@firstuserhere All credit goes to Brian Tomasik for the question! Ooh what happened in your discussions?

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@NoaNabeshima not all! After all, i recall this market when i bring the question up with people! Credit to you also

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Will we get AGI before 2029?

32% chance

Will we get AGI before 2032?

52% chance

Will we get AGI before 2033?

55% chance

Will we get AGI before 2031?

45% chance

Will we get AGI before 2030?

38% chance

Will we get AGI before 2040?

72% chance

By when will we have AGI?

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49% chance

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3% chance

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