By at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 2015
8
390Ṁ2952999
20%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Copied over from Elicit
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
@firstuserhere All credit goes to Brian Tomasik for the question! Ooh what happened in your discussions?
@NoaNabeshima not all! After all, i recall this market when i bring the question up with people! Credit to you also
Related questions
Related questions
Will we get AGI before 2026?
5% chance
Will we get AGI before 2030?
65% chance
Will we get AGI before 2027?
19% chance
Will we get AGI before 2036?
76% chance
Will we get AGI before 2031?
66% chance
Will we get AGI before 2028?
34% chance
Will we get AGI before 2026?
6% chance
Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?
40% chance
The probability of "extremely bad outcomes e.g., human extinction" from AGI will be >5% in next survey of AI experts
75% chance
By when will we have AGI?