@Mqrius I don't see how this decreases the odds of a successful landing. If anything it reduces the odds of even a launch happening, in which case I assume this market would resolve N/A.

@SimonWestlake In part of just posted it here for interested parties. But also you said "I think by the time something is launching to the ISS, it's had a ton of due diligence done on it to make sure that it's going to work as expected."

This due diligence is now no longer guaranteed.

@Mqrius heh, fair point.

I really want it to succeed, but it’s pretty rare for everything to go well on the first launch.

Question: if the launcher fails before the spaceplane can even try to land, what happens to this market?

@ChuckLauerVose idk, I think by the time something is launching to the ISS, it's had a ton of due diligence done on it to make sure that it's going to work as expected. I'd be pretty shocked if it failed to land.

Yes, Starliner is a great counter-point, but Boeing was given an enormous amount of benefit of the doubt because they used to have a good reputation. I'm sure NASA has given Sierra Space the full scrutiny.