When dreamchaser launches, will it land on the runway succcessfully?
7
170Ṁ171Dec 31
76%
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If dream chaser fails at any part before landing, resolves NO
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I really want it to succeed, but it’s pretty rare for everything to go well on the first launch.
Question: if the launcher fails before the spaceplane can even try to land, what happens to this market?
@ChuckLauerVose idk, I think by the time something is launching to the ISS, it's had a ton of due diligence done on it to make sure that it's going to work as expected. I'd be pretty shocked if it failed to land.
Yes, Starliner is a great counter-point, but Boeing was given an enormous amount of benefit of the doubt because they used to have a good reputation. I'm sure NASA has given Sierra Space the full scrutiny.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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