Events in Russia within a year after Russia-Ukraine war ends [add answers]

MANIFOLD

Ṁ4.2kṀ1.9k

2050

58%

Direct commercial flights to the EU resume

51%

Central Bank interest rate (a.k.a. key rate) is less or equal 5% at some moment

44%

Partial mobilization formally ends

42%

Russia and Ukraine re-establish full diplomatic relations (embassies reopen)

40%

Major (>50k people) anti-government protests in Moscow

40%

New FSB director appointed

39%

Amnesty for draft evasion announced

38%

New prime minister appointed

38%

Early State Duma elections called

37%

Access to Instagram unblocked nationwide by Roskomnadzor

36%

Constitutional amendments remove annexed Ukrainian regions from the Russian Federation

34%

Russia militarily invades another country

31%

Russia rejoins the Council of Europe

24%

Vladimir Putin ceases to be the president of Russia

The closing date of this market will be determined as the date when Russia's war in Ukraine ends (according to Wikipedia) + 1 year. (If it happens to be February 29th, then the date is March 1st of the following year). In case it resumes some time later, the closing date will NOT change.

Each option will be resolved to YES or NO based on whether the event occured between the day the war ends and the closing date.

If it does happen between the two mentioned dates, it resolves YES.

If an obviously irreversible event (e.g. someone's death) happens before the war ends, it resolves NO.
If an event does not happen before the closing date, the corresponding option resolves NO.

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