Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES if the Ukraine-Russia war ends by December 31, 2026. "War ends" is defined as a formal ceasefire agreement, peace treaty, or other official cessation of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine that is recognized by both governments and results in a sustained halt to major combat operations for at least 30 consecutive days.

The market resolves NO if active combat continues beyond December 31, 2026, or if any ceasefire/agreement breaks down before the 30-day threshold is met.

Background

As of September 2025, Russia's war in Ukraine has dragged on for three and a half years, with no end in sight despite nine months of efforts by the United States to end the fighting. Neither round of talks achieved a breakthrough, although agreement was reached on the exchange of prisoners of war and Ukraine and Russia have committed to continue dialogue. Russia's president Vladimir Putin seeks recognition of all occupied land as Russian and guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO, while Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelenskyy seeks a full withdrawal of Russian troops and security guarantees to prevent further Russian aggression. Russia currently controls 19% of Ukraine.

Considerations

Russian President Vladimir Putin is in no hurry to end his invasion, with Ukraine agreeing to an unconditional ceasefire while Russia refuses to do likewise and employs stalling tactics in an apparent bid to drag out the negotiating process indefinitely. Despite heavy losses, the past three and a half years do not appear to have fundamentally altered the Kremlin's political objectives or strategic calculus.