Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the United States conducts any bombing campaign against Iranian territory before 11:59 PM UTC on February 28, 2026. Bombing includes airstrikes, cruise missile strikes, or other aerial bombardment. The resolution will be determined by official statements from the U.S. Department of Defense, credible news reports from major international outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera, etc.), or confirmed military announcements. Accidental strikes or strikes on Iranian proxies outside Iranian territory do not count.

Background

Tensions have risen between the US and Iran following Iran's crackdown on nationwide protests, with President Trump deploying a "massive armada" that could act against Iran "with speed and violence, if necessary." This deployment represents one of the most significant U.S. military buildups in the Middle East in recent years, second in scale only to operations that preceded targeted strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in mid-2025. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has warned the United States that any attack on his country would result in a "regional war." Iran and the United States have confirmed opening lines of communication to work out a deal and avoid military action as tensions rise in the Gulf.

Considerations

Both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have publicly stated the United States could not use their airspace for an attack on Iran. Trump has walked back his earlier warning, seemingly accepting Tehran's assurances that arrested protesters would not be executed. Some analysts suggest Trump will likely continue pressuring Iran into "nuclear surrender" and avoid all-out war, as a war could embroil the whole Gulf, which Trump cannot afford.

This description was generated by AI.