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MANIFOLD
Will a Republican win in the following US Senate 2026 elections?
114
Ṁ3.4kṀ52k
Nov 4
97%
West Virginia
96%
Alabama
95%
Wyoming
95%
Arkansas
94%
South Dakota
92%
Tennessee
91%
Oklahoma
90%
Idaho
90%
Mississippi
90%
Louisiana
88%
Kentucky
85%
Montana
82%
South Carolina
78%
Florida (Special)
78%
Kansas
60%
Iowa
60%
Nebraska
59%
Texas
43%
Ohio (Special)
38%
Alaska

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections

  • Update 2025-07-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - An independent candidate who caucuses with the Republican party will not count as a Republican for the purposes of this market's resolution.

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US Politics
2026 US Congressional Elections
2026 US Election
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Does this include independents who intend to caucus with the Republicans, should there be any?

@EvanDaniel I’ll say no, as Manifold’s 2024 markets treated all independents as “Other” party.

bought Ṁ10 NO

Can you add Ohio and Florida?

@ZaneMiller Added

bought Ṁ25 YES

Susan Collins unbeatable

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