I know the probabilty is very low, but who knows
1,000
3.00I guess this is where it all started lol. I actually think my decision to not get involved in changing the resolution of this market originally was fine. But alas, it has now become clear that hyperpolitan are just using them to funnel profit to @alby so I will now finally resolve it N/A.
@DavidChee Quite shocked, frankly. This applies to all 'personal' markets - which Manifold is full. Rather you choose that these personal questions are impossible to track and verify and are not allowed or you can't simply judge arbitrarily based on your bias. The meteorite could be a joke, but what about a encounter with a specific dog or animal while walking? How can you know what happened in reality? Please check all the markets on the side and tell me why they should not all resolve as N/A.
@Hyperpolitan I apologise if you were led to believe what you were doing was okay and now feel bad for investing time into creating all these markets which are N/A'd.
You misunderstand the reason I stepped in. I agree, I cant know what is happening in reality. Which is why I didnt originally take any action in this market months ago, and why I havent taken action on any other personal markets.
I wouldnt have touched any of your markets, IF you weren't using them to funnel mana into @alby. However it has become clear you are systematically funneling profit to that account on all the markets I N/A'd. This breaks 2 things in our guidelines. 1. Defrauding users. 2. Funneling profit into an account using alts.
You can feel free to go back to making these sorts of markets and I wont touch them (aside from unlisting some) IF you aren't funneling mana to @alby.
@IsaacKing I think for markets like these where its very personal and clearly a parody of some sort I probably won't touch the resolution. Traders know what they are getting into when the bet.
@DavidChee Didn't you say below that you'd unresolve it?
And how are we supposed to know what markets count as "clearly a parody" and which ones we can actually trust?
Do you think maybe this policy should have been announced somewhere before traders bet in markets under the (apparently false) assumption that they were safe doing so?
@DavidChee What makes this “clearly a parody of some sort”? The market creator placed the first bet, and they bet NO, which seemed like they were intending to give a serious resolution, even if the market itself is silly. People regularly create markets of the style “This will resolve YES”. This looks like it’s simply a variation on that theme.
If you want to split the difference with what you believe the market creator‘s intentions were, why not at least change to N/A?
@JimHays I can definitely see Manifold not wanting to get into the business of finding the truth on personal markets. Eg, for my Halloween market:
/MartinRandall/what-costume-will-i-wear-for-hallow-a20d811f9647
I don't want random Manifold users to be pressing me for photographic evidence. If you don't trust me to report my personal life accurately, which would be fine, then don't bet on my markets about my personal life.
According to:
https://www.iberdrola.com/innovation/meteorites-earth
there’s about 17,000 a year, or 47 a day. Obviously most of those are in the middle of nowhere. So the prior is extremely low. It’s also not quite the same as your costume example, because if it really did happen, this might have made the news. In that sense, it’s not a totally personal market.
@firstuserhere wasn't there, luckily, I will try to find some photo- as a homeless I have other to worry about now
@Hyperpolitan oh you do have this phone on which you're using manifold. Hopefully you liked your home and maybe for insurance, maybe for emotional reasons, maybe memories, nostalgia, etc you'd wanna take a pic of your home
@MartinRandall @firstuserhere I have the view from the other side, I was cycling around the area a bit, i think a little while after you walked by it, @MartinRandall Can confirm it happened.
@MartinRandall this is ai generated, I'm seriously affected by the event please no jokes