By the end of 2027: Germany will be actively engaged in war against another country, or there will be acts of war by other countries on German territory (either an invasion or at least shelling or drone attacks from outside).

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, at any point between the market's creation and 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2027, Germany is actively engaged in a formal state of war with another sovereign nation, or if acts of war (defined as kinetic military attacks such as shelling, missile strikes, or drone attacks) are carried out by a foreign state or non-state actor against German territory.

If no such events occur by the specified deadline, the market resolves to NO.

Resolution will be determined by consensus reporting from major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, Deutsche Welle). Mere involvement in diplomatic sanctions, cyber warfare, or defensive military training exercises does not qualify as "actively engaged in war" or an "act of war" for the purpose of this market.

Background

Germany is a member of NATO and the European Union, which implies collective defense obligations under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. The security landscape in Europe has shifted significantly following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, leading to increased military spending by Germany and a heightened focus on the Bundeswehr's operational readiness. This market tracks the potential for a direct kinetic conflict involving Germany either abroad or within its own borders, a scenario that would represent a fundamental departure from the country's post-WWII security posture.