There will be a shortage of natural gas because different data shows that there will be a shortage of natural gas by the end of 2027. According to International Energy Agency, due to the cut off Russian pipeline, the bcm is decreasing year after year which is a big risk for Germany to be run out of natural gas by the end of 2027 (Baseline European Union Gas Demand and Supply in 2023 – How to Avoid Gas Shortages in the European Union in 2023 – Analysis - IEA, n.d.). This is less than half the 60 bcm that is likely to be delivered in the whole of 2022, which in turn is less than half the amount supplied in 2021)
On the other hand, the change of weather is another factor that will affect the shortage of natural gas. Apparently, Reuters mentioned that German gas storage levels currently stand at 63.89%, way above critical thresholds that would justify Berlin cracking down on gas consumption, which is mainly due to a relatively warm temperatures over the past months (Reuters, 2023). Therefore, based on these two main factors, there will probably be a shortage of natural gas by the end of 2027.
Reference:
Reuters. (2023, March 18). German energy regulator cannot rule out gas emergency for 2023/24 winter. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/german-energy-regulator-cannot-rule-out-gas-emergency-202324-winter-2023-03-18/
Baseline European Union gas demand and supply in 2023 – How to Avoid Gas Shortages in the European Union in 2023 – Analysis - IEA. (n.d.). IEA. https://www.iea.org/reports/how-to-avoid-gas-shortages-in-the-european-union-in-2023/baseline-european-union-gas-demand-and-supply-in-2023