This has been a relatively political issue for a while with everyone questioning the safety of air travel. Has our government taken our concerns into account. is 2025 doomed to be the year of plane crashes?

Background 2025 has seen an unusually high number of aviation incidents in the United States. Notable incidents include:

• January 29: American Airlines regional jet collision (67 fatalities)

• January 31: Medical jet crash in Philadelphia (7 fatalities)

• February 6: Cessna crash in Alaska (10 fatalities)

• February 10: Collision at Scottsdale Airport (1 fatality)

• February 14: Cessna crash in Central Florida (1 fatality)

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is currently addressing safety system updates, though some critical improvements are not expected until 2030. The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) reports 87 aviation accidents in 2025 so far, though most were non-fatal.

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if a commercial, private, or military aircraft accident occurs that meets any of these criteria before the upcoming weekend (12:00 AM local time Saturday):

• Results in one or more fatalities

• Causes significant structural damage to the aircraft

• Requires emergency evacuation

• Leads to an NTSB investigation

The incident must be reported by at least two major news outlets or confirmed by aviation authorities.

Considerations

• While aviation incidents have increased in 2025, flying remains statistically one of the safest forms of transportation

• Weather conditions, mechanical issues, and human factors can all contribute to aviation incidents

• The definition of "major" is specifically outlined in the resolution criteria to avoid ambiguity

• Current FAA staffing changes and political discussions about aviation safety may impact risk factors

• Update 2025-02-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Accident Location Update:

  • The market will only consider incidents occurring in USA and Canada.

  • Incidents outside these regions will not qualify for resolution, even if they meet the other criteria.

  • All other resolution criteria remain in effect.