Will two big planes collide, while at least one of them is airborne, in 2024?
150
2025
10%
chance

Essentially, following [Calvin's market](https://manifold.markets/Calvin6b82/will-two-big-planes-collide-in-2024), except at least one of the planes involved in the collision must be airborne at the time-of-collision for this market to resolve YES, along with the following conditions, copied from Calvin's market:

Definitions

  • a big plane means a powered fixed-wing aircraft with wingspan greater or equals to 20m (around 65.6ft) that has been airborne within 365 days prior to the collision. Things that are included under the physical requirements: Bombardier Global 5000, any Boeing 737. Things that are not included under the physical requirements: a glider, a helicopter, Cessna Citation V, Cessna 172 Skyhawk. A part of the plane that is detached at the time to collision does not count. (e.g. a wheel that detaches from a plane and collide with another plane does not count)

  • two [objects] collide means physical contact between multiple objects.

  • will means happening after 2024-01-03T03:00:00Z

  • in 2024 means when the collision takes place, the local time is in the year 2024.

  • another is to exclude events in 2024 before this question's creation.

  • Airborne means that there is no part of that aircraft that touches the ground; so, the Japan Airlines Flight 516 would not have qualified yes, since Japan Airlines Flight 516 collided with the coast guard aircraft after touchdown.

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