Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, prior to January 1, 2060 (11:59 PM UTC), any individual who placed a prediction market bet prior to January 1, 2030 is credibly revealed and verified to be a time traveler and if it is likely their future knowledge assisted them in their bet.

For a YES resolution, the revelation must occur before 2060 and be verified by widespread scientific consensus, official public acknowledgment by major government authorities, or definitive physical/technological proof. Unverified claims, hoaxes, internet rumors, or statistical anomalies alone will not trigger a YES resolution.

If no verified time traveler who bet on a prediction market before 2030 is revealed prior to January 1, 2060, this market resolves to NO.

Background

The premise that prediction markets could reveal time travelers relies on the idea that an individual with precise knowledge of future events could achieve statistically improbable or impossible accuracy on financial or forecasting platforms.

Physicists and researchers have occasionally conducted informal or formal tests to detect prescient behavior. Notably, Stephen Hawking held a party for time travelers in 2009, sending out invitations only after the event took place, and a 2014 study by researchers at Michigan Technological University searched internet data, search logs, and social media posts for prescient terms prior to major historical events without finding credible evidence of time travel.