Which Representative or Senator will have the highest WAR in the 2026 Midterm US Congressional Elections?
2
100Ṁ352027
56%
Susan Collins (R|ME-SEN)
10%
Dusty Johnson (R|SD-AL)
9%
5%
Jack Reed (D|CT-SEN)
5%
Brian Fitzpatrick (R|PA-01)
5%
Kristen McDonald Rivet (D|MI-08)
5%
Grace Meng (D|NY-6)
5%
Henry Cuellar (D|TX-26)
Earlier this week, Split Ticket released their 2024 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) Model for the 2024 US Election. This model measures how well a candidate outperformed "controlling for seat partisanship, incumbency, demographics, and money", and is intended to be a barometer for candidate quality in Congressional races in both the House and the Senate. For this market, I will only consider those who win their races (whether incumbent or not).
2024's top performers were Dusty Johnson (R|SD-AL) at 9.93, Angus King (I/D|ME-SEN) at 9.78, and Amy Klobuchar (D|MN-SEN) at 8.47.
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