All these predictions are taken from Forbes/Rob Toews' "10 AI Predictions For 2024".
For the 2023 predictions you can find them here, and their resolution here.
You can find all the markets under the tag [2024 Forbes AI predictions].
I will resolve to whatever Forbes/Rob Toews say in their resolution article for 2024's predictions.
I might bet in this market, as I have no power over the resolution.
Description of this prediction from the article:
In AI today, the phrase “large language model” (and its abbreviation LLM) are frequently used as shorthand for “any advanced AI model.” This is understandable, given that many of the original generative AI models to rise to prominence (e.g., GPT-3) were text-only models.
But as AI model types proliferate and as AI becomes increasingly multimodal, this term will become increasingly imprecise and unhelpful. The emergence of multimodal AI has been one of the defining themes in AI in 2023. Many of today’s leading generative AI models incorporate text, images, 3-D, audio, video, music, physical action and more. They are far more than just language models.
Consider an AI model that has been trained on the amino acid sequences and molecular structures of known proteins in order to generate de novo protein therapeutics. Though its underlying architecture is an extension of models like GPT-3, does it really make sense to call this a large language model?
Or consider foundation models in robotics: large generative models that combine visual and language input with general internet-scale knowledge in order to take actions in the real world, e.g. via a robotic arm. A richer term than “language model” should and will exist for such models. (“Vision-language-action,” or VLA, model is one alternative phrase that researchers have used.)
A similar point can be made about the FunSearch model recently published by DeepMind, which the authors themselves refer to as an LLM but which deals in mathematics rather than in natural language.
In 2024, as our models become increasingly multidimensional, so, too, will the terms that we use to describe them.
No way they won’t resolve this YES after what they pulled last year