Will the first artificial superintelligence (ASI) be a large language model (LLM)?
Will the first artificial superintelligence (ASI) be a large language model (LLM)?
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I will decide whether or not a system counts as an ASI based on [Justice Stewart's criterion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_know_it_when_I_see_it) and whether it counts as an LLM based on a poll. I will not bet on this market.
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You won't decide anything because you'll be dead from the ASI.
In any case, humans won't build an ASI. They'll build an AGI (if we let them), which will build an ASI. We can speculate about what kind of architecture such a thing might have, but that's past the singularity and all bets are quite literally off.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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