• All these predictions are taken from Forbes/Rob Toews' "10 AI Predictions For 2026".

• For the 2025 predictions you can find them here, and their resolution here.

• You can find all the markets under the tag [2026 Forbes AI predictions].

• Note that I will resolve to whatever Forbes/Rob Toews say in their resolution article for 2026's predictions, even if I or others disagree with his decision.

• I might bet in this market, as I have no power over the resolution.
  
  Description of this prediction from the article:
  
  ❗ Full title: 3. China’s domestic AI chip sector will make significant strides, planting the seeds for the eventual decline of Nvidia’s global dominance.

Foreign policy decisions sometimes have dramatically different consequences in the short term versus the long term.

Imposing strict export controls on AI chips to China was one of the most important decisions to come out of the entire Biden administration.

It was a bold and decisive move with clear logic. The U.S. and its western allies control the most advanced AI chips (e.g., Nvidia), the software needed to design those chips (e.g., Synopsys, Cadence) and the equipment needed to manufacture those chips (e.g., ASML). Control over this technology ecosystem represents a key chokepoint in the AI race. The Biden administration decided to unapologetically exploit this chokepoint: it banned the export of these technologies to China with the goal of crippling China’s domestic AI industry.

At the time, 95% of all AI chips used in China were Nvidia GPUs (and most of the rest were AMD GPUs). So the export controls appeared to be devastatingly effective. U.S. policymakers and commentators widely praised the move at the time.

Unfortunately, this strategy looks likely to backfire spectacularly.

The key failure of this strategy boils down to a tradeoff between short-term impact and long-term impact. In the short term, there is no question that preventing Chinese organizations from accessing the most advanced AI chips sets China back in the race to develop cutting-edge AI.

But the Chinese Communist Party does not operate based on the short term. The CCP has the luxury, and a proven track record, of being extremely long-term-oriented. (In 1972, when asked about the impact of the 1789 French Revolution, Chinese premier Zhou Enlai famously responded, “Too early to say.”)

Losing access to the world’s advanced AI hardware provided a painful but unmistakable wakeup call to the CCP that this was a set of technologies and capabilities that was too important for China not to control itself. And so, China has set out to cultivate its own domestic AI chip industry and to wean itself off its reliance on the West.

President Xi Jinping has vowed to take a “whole-nation approach" to build up the country’s semiconductor capabilities. China is preparing to debut a new $70 billion package to bankroll and support its chipmaking industry, which would be the largest-ever state-backed semiconductor incentives program. The CCP is pumping unprecedented levels of resources into national chip champions like Huawei and Cambricon as well as younger upstarts like Moore Threads, which went public earlier this month.

The latest exchange between the U.S. and China on this topic indicates growing Chinese confidence.

U.S. policymakers including AI czar David Sacks have recently come to recognize the strategic downsides of cutting off China’s access to U.S. AI hardware altogether. They have therefore sought to strike more of a balance by permitting the sale of some advanced U.S. chips to compete with China’s domestic providers. A few weeks ago, President Trump announced that he would approve the sale of Nvidia H200 GPUs to China. While not at the bleeding edge, H200s are far more powerful than any other GPU currently approved for sale to China. This was a controversial decision and was widely viewed as a major concession to China.

The problem? China rejected the opportunity to purchase Nvidia H200s. Instead, the CCP is leaning heavily on Chinese companies to use AI chips from domestic producers and to work with those producers to help them improve as quickly as possible. It is making clear that it no longer wants or needs to depend on U.S. hardware and instead has gone all-in on developing its own chip industry.

Making cutting-edge semiconductors is one of the most complex activities in which humanity engages. The accumulated intellectual property and technical knowledge inside an organization like Nvidia or TSMC is unimaginably vast and nuanced. It cannot be replicated overnight.

But China has many talented engineers, vast resources and a deep national commitment to this effort. In 2026, China’s domestic chip industry will make concrete, meaningful progress toward closing the gap with the U.S. on AI hardware.
It will not yet achieve parity with Nvidia’s most advanced chips; it will not even come close; but by the end of 2026, it will be evident that China’s chip industry is on a productive path and is making steady progress toward the frontier of AI chip production.

In the fullness of time, a robust, dynamic, cutting-edge AI chip ecosystem in China will be the worst possible outcome for Nvidia and for U.S. policymakers hoping for a technological edge against China.