Hinge #1 bet proposed in this post: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/45oxYwysFiqwfKCcN/untitled-draft-keg3

"If by the fourth quarter of 2026 NVIDIA’s datacent[er] revenue and the combined AI capital expenditures of Google, Meta, OpenAI, etc have doubled year‑over‑year, the hardware curve is still exponential and the short camp scores a point. If they have not, the long camp’s “curve‑bend” story gains credibility."

The other bets:

#2: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/ai-model-training-time-decreases-fo

#3: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/revenue-per-deployed-h100-exceeds-1

#4: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/g7-country-manages-three-years-of-6

#5: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/a-topthree-ai-lab-delays-a-frontier

Meta-market for majority of the five bets: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/will-a-majority-of-the-5-hingequest?play=true