AI Impacts has published* two surveys of AI experts views on AI progress. The first was in 2016, and the second was in 2022.

This market will resolve YES if by 11:59 PM Dec. 31st 2025, AI Impacts publishes* a report or blog post (or other type of substantive piece** of media) discussing the results of another survey about experts views on AI progress, and NO otherwise. Note that this means that this market will still resolve NO if the survey has been conducted but there was no report, blog post, or substantive media published about it.

Other notes:
* I will also resolve this market to YES if an organization other than AI Impacts publishes substantive media explaning the result of this hypothetical survey, but the survey itself should be conducted (at least jointly) by AI Impacts.

** "Substantive media" can include things like explainer videos or a podcast episode explaining the results of this hypothetical survey.

What counts as a survey of expert's views on AI progress is largely up to my discrestion, but I will use the criteria of the next hypothetical survey asking similar questions as that of the previous two surveys AI impacts has conducted.