Will the S&P 500 close higher on November 15 than it closed on November 14?
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resolved Nov 15
Resolved
YES

Closes 2pm EST. NYSE closes 4pm EST.

S&P Forecasting Dashboard

Resolves based on: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP


Trading this question counts towards the S&P Forecasting Tournament for the month of November (inspired by Alex B. Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.

Rank---Award
1      2500
2      1500
3      1000

Good luck forecasting!

We have had an influx of traders so I wanted to give a few options for the December leagues (S&P and BTC).

Please vote: https://strawpoll.com/GJn47VEQbyz


Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.

DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)

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🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ186
2Ṁ150
3Ṁ75
4Ṁ71
5Ṁ50
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predicted NO

YES 4,502.88

Sorry been a rough few days but I am almost in the clear

predicted YES

4500+

Celebrate Mlb Postseason GIF by MLB

predicted YES

We wait.

season 7 buried in time GIF by SpongeBob SquarePants

..................

predicted YES

But.. don't forget, with a new 330pm ET close time!

boughtṀ2,359YES

@zh these absolutely baller moves

bought Ṁ2,359 of YES

@ScipioFabius i literally just yolo everything lol

bought Ṁ30 of NO

This is massively over priced.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

This is the proposed reward structure for the December league, if the 1-10 option is selected.

1.       2600

2.       1850

3.       1500

4.       1000

5.       850

6.       700

7.       650

8.       500

9.       250

10.   150

Straw poll is in the description

bought Ṁ5 of NO
bought Ṁ30 of NO

@Haws any reason why this particular structure? Feels a bit all over the place

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@ScipioFabius It does look visually odd.
I personally feel the structure creates a reason to push for a spot 2-3 higher than a predictor sits at making them more likely to predict more often and/or smarter and/or more participation from non regular predictors.

sold Ṁ0 of NO

should be a winner takes all

predicted YES

@nickten Sounds like a good side bet to make with others in the top 10 😂

predicted YES

@nickten

  • Take Top 10 Of Mana Amount Earned On Leaderboard.

  • Pot Amount Is The Amount Of Total Mana Earned By Top 10.

  • Individual Mana Earned / Total Top 10 Mana Earned = % payout

    That is my leaderboard idea for Q1 2024.

predicted NO

@ScipioFabius Essentially I am projecting the amount from traders but also trying to make the top 3-4 spots the most out of all. I agree I could do a better job at making the transition between ranks less disjointed, so it's more of an even amount dropped (I see 5-10 is weird in how some higher ranks drop much much less than others).

I can clean this up before December I think.