Will the S&P 500 increase in October 2023?
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resolved Nov 1
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NO

Will the S&P 500 close at 4288.05 or higher on 2023-10-31 ()?

See also: /XComhghall/will-the-sp-500-increase-in-q4-2023

/XComhghall/will-sp-500-increase-overall-in-202

S&P 500 close level from January to September 2023

4076.60, 3970.15, 4109.31, 4169.48, 4179.83, 4450.38, 4588.96, 4507.66, 4288.05

https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices

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To close lower than End-September (4288$), the SP500 price should decrease by 0,9% to close lower.

Given Israel-hamas war, credit default risk starting to increase, huge companies refinancing debt at 6-8%, and the fact that the markets are starting to realize that we might be facing a recession very soon, I bet that its going to close lower. We are seeing trillion dollar companies like Nvidia being traded at a x100 P/E ratio, when the rest of the industry hardly goes above 2.

Reasons for "YES"

1. Looking back at data from 1928, there is a 61% probability that the S&P 500 will rise in October, the third year of the president's presidency, up significantly from 39% in September.

2. We can see a golden cross point on the 16th, representing even higher in the future.

3. An even lower confidence bound price is predicted at 4,424.04 USD on the forecast sheet in Excel, which is higher than the first closed price of 4,288.05 USD.

Why is this market non-public? Makes it hard for me to remember to get back here through the links in the other two markets, and I’m sure few other traders will find it.