Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, between July 9, 2025, and December 31, 2025, inclusive, Israel conducts a military strike targeting Iranian territory. A military strike is defined as an overt, deliberate attack by Israeli military forces on Iranian soil, resulting in damage or destruction of targets within Iran. The resolution will be based on credible reports from reputable news organizations such as Reuters, Associated Press, and BBC.

Background

On June 13, 2025, Israel launched "Operation Rising Lion," a significant military operation targeting Iran's nuclear facilities and military infrastructure. The operation involved extensive airstrikes on sites including the Natanz nuclear facility and resulted in the deaths of high-ranking Iranian officials, such as IRGC Commander Hossein Salami. Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on Israeli cities, leading to casualties on both sides. The conflict marked a substantial escalation in the longstanding tensions between the two nations. (apnews.com)

I will not be betting on this market.