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MANIFOLD
How are G20 countries going to deal with demographic decline? [Suggest more options]
3
Ṁ100Ṁ10
2050
60%
Raising the statutory retirement age significantly. OR any other Major restructuring of pension and healthcare systems to ensure solvency
54%
Increased investment in automation and AI to compensate for labor shortages
52%
Increased implementation of pro-natalist financial incentives and subsidies. OR Increased central support for work-life balance and childcare infrastructure.
50%
Adoption of aggressive pro-immigration policies to boost the workforce

Resolution Criteria:

Each option will resolve to the % of G20 members which are proved to have implemented that specific option at ANY point between now and 2050.

The European Union and African Union will each get just one vote just like G20 members which are sovereign countries. For the Unions, this vote resolves on the basis of whether over half (>50%) of the EU/AU constituent countries implemented the relevant options.

This market only applies to the countries considered part of the G20, EU, and AU at the time of question creation (2026), which are listed below.


Members of the G20 Miami 2026 summit:
Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States,

African Union, European Union.

Members of the European Union (2026):

Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Poland, Romania, Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden, Czechia, Portugal, Greece, Hungary, Austria, Bulgaria, Denmark, Finland, Slovakia, Ireland, Croatia, Lithuania, Slovenia, Latvia, Cyprus, Estonia, Luxembourg, Malta.


Members of the African Union (2026):

Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo Republic, DR Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, São Tomé and Príncipe, Comoros, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Mauritius, Rwanda, Seychelles, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Sahrawi Republic, Tunisia, Angola, Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Benin, Burkina Faso, Cabo Verde, Côte d’Ivoire, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Togo.

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Period (2026) appropriate work has to actually exist for immigration to actually work as a solution, socially you're welcome here (Cambridge UK), but we cannot guarantee work exists.

@AlanTennant work is a direct outcome of demographics, but for the purposes of this market resolution I'll stick to the age distributions and population levels within that country.

There could well be an AI/UBI-scenario where people get money for minimal work and don't see any reason to physically stick around in the UK. Or a more dystopian scenario could happen.

Either way this market resolution will be based on the people physically present in the country at that time and the measures taken to arrest demographic decline.

@AlanTennant + I don't know much about what industry exists in Cambridge but this will resolve at a country level.

Ideally governments of countries should have a plan for what kinds of immigration to let in based on current and forecasted skill shortages locally, but this doesn't always happen.

Edit: Paradoxically, not having a plan and being more permissive with immigration may lead to better demographics but worse outcomes. Younger demographics is not a perfect metric, it's just a marker of potential.

Green and blue are certain to be roughly 100% for 2050, considering AI timelines, plus the fact that any increase counts.

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