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MANIFOLD
How are G20 countries going to deal with demographic decline? [Suggest more options]
2
Ṁ100Ṁ7
2050
60%
Raising the statutory retirement age significantly. OR any other Major restructuring of pension and healthcare systems to ensure solvency
52%
Increased investment in automation and AI to compensate for labor shortages
50%
Increased implementation of pro-natalist financial incentives and subsidies. OR Increased central support for work-life balance and childcare infrastructure.
48%
Adoption of aggressive pro-immigration policies to boost the workforce

Resolution Criteria:

Each option will resolve to the % of G20 members which are proved to have implemented that specific option at ANY point between now and 2050.

The European Union and African Union will each get just one vote just like G20 members which are sovereign countries. For the Unions, this vote resolves on the basis of whether over half (>50%) of the EU/AU constituent countries implemented the relevant options.

This market only applies to the countries considered part of the G20, EU, and AU at the time of question creation (2026), which are listed below.


Members of the G20 Miami 2026 summit:
Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States,

African Union, European Union.

Members of the European Union (2026):

Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Poland, Romania, Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden, Czechia, Portugal, Greece, Hungary, Austria, Bulgaria, Denmark, Finland, Slovakia, Ireland, Croatia, Lithuania, Slovenia, Latvia, Cyprus, Estonia, Luxembourg, Malta.


Members of the African Union (2026):

Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo Republic, DR Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, São Tomé and Príncipe, Comoros, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Mauritius, Rwanda, Seychelles, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Sahrawi Republic, Tunisia, Angola, Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Benin, Burkina Faso, Cabo Verde, Côte d’Ivoire, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Togo.

Market context
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