Resolution criteria

Statistics Canada officially projects 0.3% population growth in 2025, to be followed by negative 0.2% in 2026. The market resolves YES if Canada's total population on December 31, 2026 is lower than on January 1, 2026. Resolution will be determined by official Statistics Canada population estimates, available at Statistics Canada's population estimates page.

Jan 1 2026: 41,548,511

Background

The government's 2025–2027 immigration plan proposes a substantial reduction of admissions of new permanent residents and a decrease in the number of non-permanent residents living in the country, with the goal of pausing population growth in the short term. Canada's population decreased by 76,068 people (-0.2%) over the third quarter of 2025, marking the first quarterly decline in 2025. The decline was mainly due to a drop in non-permanent residents, linked to changing government policies concerning immigration.

Considerations

The population decrease noted in preliminary estimates could be smaller, or greater, or even turn into an increase when the estimates are updated in a few months, after more complete and accurate administrative data become available. Additionally, some economists argue that official projections may underestimate growth, with alternative estimates suggesting 1% growth in 2026 rather than the projected negative 0.2%.