First country with a fertility rate above 2.1 for three consecutive years.

The intent of this market is to use it as a proxy to predict which policy interventions will be most likely to successfully increase birth rates, by looking at county odds as they are announced and implemented.

THE FINE PRINT:

• In the event of some dramatic status quo interruption, I will suspend the country's count for the duration. e.g. if Taiwan posts a 2.3 in the year before an invasion by the PRC, a 1.8 and 1.9 during the invasion, and then a 2.5 and 2.4 in the years afterwards, I would resolve in favor of Taiwan

• I've excluded North Korea because its society and economy are so unusual that its experience doesn't provide many practical takeaways.

• If a country's statistics are considered untrustworthy by international scholars, I will wait until it's approx 95% certain they've qualified.

• The "Other" option is a placeholder for newly created or newly qualifying countries. Like if Korea splits into more pieces, or Vietnam or Mongolia undergo a demographic transition as dramatic as the other countries listed. I will have a high bar in judging this.