Will Northern Cyprus be a sovereign state before 2040?
Will Northern Cyprus be a sovereign state before 2040?
5
90Ṁ592040
23%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If Northern Cyprus joins the UN as a sovereign state, resolves as YES
If Northern Cyprus is self-declared sovereign and has >90% of international recognition, resolves as YES
If Northern Cyprus is self-declared sovereign and has <90% of international recognition, resolves as the percentage of countries that recognize its independence
If Northern Cyprus becomes independent only to join Turkey afterwards, resolves to YES or according to the percentage of countries that recognize that transition
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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