Will Northern Cyprus be a sovereign state before 2040?
4
27
Ṁ29Ṁ90
2040
31%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If Northern Cyprus joins the UN as a sovereign state, resolves as YES
If Northern Cyprus is self-declared sovereign and has >90% of international recognition, resolves as YES
If Northern Cyprus is self-declared sovereign and has <90% of international recognition, resolves as the percentage of countries that recognize its independence
If Northern Cyprus becomes independent only to join Turkey afterwards, resolves to YES or according to the percentage of countries that recognize that transition
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