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How should Duncan resolve 'Russia invades Ukraine' and why?
8
αΉ€500αΉ€131
resolved Feb 22
ResolvedN/A
0.7%Other
26%
ANTE: Stake on this to subsidize the market.
39%
Should remain unresolved until Russian troops enter territory under de facto Ukrainian control, or the period ends. It should have resolved positevely long agoe if the question refered. occupation of de jure Ukrainian territory. Because Russian Troops have never left Crimea.
10%
Should resolve when Russian troops enter Ukraine minus Crimea
0.0%
Should resolve when Russian troops enter Ukraine minus Crimea, LNR, and DNR
0.0%
Should resolve when Russian troops enter Ukraine minus Crimea, Luhansk oblast, and Donetsk oblast
0.0%
test answer, supposed to disappear.
24%
White House officials are calling this an invasion. I think it should count as an invasion on this basis, assuming Russia deploys military personnel. > "We think this is, yes, the beginning of an invasion, Russia's latest invasion into Ukraine," Finer said, according to the Associated Press. "An invasion is an invasion and that is what is underway." https://www.npr.org/2022/02/22/1082308773/biden-russia-ukraine-updates
@Duncan has stated on Discord: Russia sending more troops into Donetsk/Luhansk will totally resolve the market yes. Even 100 troops will be sufficient, as long as they aren't sneaky about it. But I really want to be sure it's happening (it looks like it is, but I want to be SURE). So, if I do not have a better source than some random British politician (sorry Sajid), it is possible that I may try reopening the market at 6pm (EST) today. If anyone has comments on this, please respond here with clear arguments for or against, tagging me. And I have limited ability to check MM during the work day, so don't expect a quick response. Sorry :-/ But he got no reply so far. Let's help him out. Duncan, you should stake money on ANTE whenever you get around to seeing this, even if people have already given the answers you need. I plan to resolve PROB so as to create good incentives, see https://manifold.markets/Gurkenglas/suggest-features for details. Close date updated to 2022-02-23 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-02-23 3:59 am Close date updated to 2022-02-22 11:59 pm Feb 22, 3:57pm: oh, every edit of that is logged ^^ Feb 22, 5:43pm: This may have been unclear: What Duncan is missing is evidence, not opinions. Feb 22, 10:12pm: TO MAYBE GET MONEY AN ANSWER MUST BE A LINK TO A NEWS SOURCE. (modulo ANTE) Close date updated to 2022-03-22 11:59 pm
Market context
Politics
Ukraine-Russia war
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Duncan reopened, no evidence here was decisive, resolving N/A.
I added (a modified version of) my comment as an answer.
Y'all are missing the point. Matthew has submitted the first piece of evidence in the thread. He should put it in the form of an answer. That said, I am updating downward that @Duncan will stake an ante. He has little liquidity, but might subsidize if he sees decisive evidence, after he resolves. "I suppose I should state now that I am planning to reopen the market at 6:00 PM EST unless at least two major news sources state clearly that Russian tanks or troops have physically entered the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, or any other part of the Ukraine exclusive of the Crimea. News reports that random politician X said Y will be largely disregarded, although major players (e.g., Biden, Putin, Zelenskyy) will be taken to be knowledgeable if motivated parties."
Full disclosure, I have stake in the YES side of this market. White House officials are calling this an invasion (if Russian troops enter Ukrainian territory by March 1st). If it resolves NO then I really think there should have been some clarifications beforehand on why this sort of thing shouldn't count. > "We think this is, yes, the beginning of an invasion, Russia's latest invasion into Ukraine," Finer said, according to the Associated Press. "An invasion is an invasion and that is what is underway." https://www.npr.org/2022/02/22/1082308773/biden-russia-ukraine-updates
This may have been unclear: What Duncan is missing is evidence, not opinions.
full disclosure: I do have stake in the NO side of this market.

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