Will the next Russian leader disapprove of the Russian invasion of Ukraine?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if the next Russian leader following Vladimir Putin expresses their disapproval of the February 2022 invasion of ukraine, in word or deed, by doing any of these:
Publicly stating that the Putin's decision to invade Ukraine was a mistake (or a crime).
Ordering a withdrawal of the Russian forces from the majority (or all) of the Ukrainian territories occupied in 2022+ that are still under Russian control, and do it without attempting to capture new territories.
Ordering a return of the territories to Ukraine.
Returning the de facto control of Crimea, LNR, and/or DNR to Ukraine.
This question will resolve as No if the next Russian leader does none of the above by January 1, 2030.
If Vladimir Putin remains the de facto leader of Russia from February 1, 2022 to January 1, 2030, this question will resolve as Ambiguous.
For the purpose of this question, we are only interested in the next Russian leader, not Putin. If Putin himself did any of the aforementioned points, we ignore it, as long as the question still can be resolved by the next leader in the future (e.g by condemning the invasion).
To account for possible short-lived interim governments, we define the next as any Russian leader inaugurated within 3 years after the end of the Putin's de facto rule. See also the "fine print" button below.
This market is managed by a bot. Once the original question resolves this market should automatically resolve the next time the bot is run. If the original resolved more than a day ago and this question is still open, ping @jskf. I might resolve this N/A if I find out it's a duplicate of an existing question within three days of market creation.