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Manifold Features

Basic

Ṁ15k

9999

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16%

ANTE: Stake on this to subsidize the market.

14%

Linkable Comments

Ability to optionally privately enter your expectation of outcome when making a purchase, for the purpose of having a personal calibration curve. Justification: I find that making calibration curves for myself is fun and helps improve my forecasting, and that my calibration curve gets less accurate after a few months if I stop practicing. But the practice takes effort, which could be piggy-backed on the forecasting activity of participating in prediction markets for less effort than doing it seperately.

Reminders. Allow users to set a custom reminder to return to a market.

Spoiler tags to hide markets about in progress fiction

More explanation for people who don't know anything about prediction markets.

Ability to short multiple choice answers

Kelly

Retroactively close a market, undoing bets after the new close time. (Reward predictions before the events happened, not betting really quickly after hearing the news.)

Ability to include a short message when resolving a market

Merge duplicate Answers for multiple Answer Questions https://manifold.markets/Honourary/will-manifold-markets-add-a-merge-f

Mechanism for making decisions (built-in bundle of conditional markets?) with better incentives for betters (not beauty contest)

Market Scanner (like stock screeners)

Ability to tip users M$ for helpful comments.

Ability to attach (private) personal notes to other users (e.g. to keep track of who you've observed be a good market resolver)

1.8%

Zen mode: Hide the probabilities from the user until they decide to buy.

1.7%

Ability to delete comments.

1.6%

Allow users to edit their comments

1.2%

Filter OUT market categories on the homepage.

1.2%

Combinatorial Prediction Markets

There is no reason the next feature market should wait until the resolution of https://manifold.markets/Austin/what-new-manifold-features-would-be . I plan to resolve PROB so as to create good incentives. For example, if someone finds a loophole and stakes M$ 10000 one second before closing time, expecting to siphon this pool into their account for no meaningful contribution, and this is plain as day to all involved, I expect to try to make sure they don't profit. If someone gives an answer you expect deserves payment, and so you immediately double their stake, allowing them to immediately cash out at a profit, that is a reasonable way to gain the payout they would have. I too may do so, if I make sure to not unduly profit from insider knowledge. I plan to pay out 3% of profits on this market, that is, 75% of the creator's commission, to the ANTE answer, allowing others to subsidize this market. The remaining percentage point seems a fair commission for my administration. The rules may change in the face of good arguments, especially when that doesn't discourage early contribution. I won't ignore the incentives of people that have already acted. In fact, good arguments in the form of answers will be rewarded! For this "smart contract" with a human in place of a blockchain also could use feature suggestions. But do mark such answers "Meta: ". I don't plan to reward previously suggested features unless you weren't paid enough for them. I think you should be paid for your feature requests that have already been implemented before this market's creation, but I will take the opinions of ANTE stakes into account here. I consent to this market being transferred to another user by Manifold staff if future me behaves in ways that apparent present me grossly disapproves of. If I get tired of this, I may say so and close this after 24 hours. If Manifold doesn't implement partial payouts and history archival in time we may have to close and reopen this.

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I want to request a feature, maybe sharing much with the ogp.me / OpenGraph link-embed previews.
Namely: I want to request, on markets and on users, mouseover previews of market or user state (settings-enabled, possible only while holding Ctrl).
Taking inspiration from MediaWiki "Previews"/Popups or the more power-user focused preview-and-actions Navigation_popups Gadget, not to mention Gwern's popups or semantic zoom, https://gwern.net/design.

I think I should call this "on-site mouseover previews for market & user links (advanced setting, or with held key) "

Please, it would make it so much easier to find mispriced markets!

You might want to review that.

If I invest $10,000 in a long term market at 2% interest, in 3650 days I make as much in compound interest as I make in 44 days of the daily bettor bonus.

But wait, that's dumb! This isn't compound interest we're talking about. There's no reason that we should expect people to reinvest the interest payments into the same market, so really, we should assume that the default is that in 3650 days I make as much in interest payments as I make in 40 days of the daily bettor bonus.

Also, we might reasonably say that no interest is earned on the first year (or six months?), and it only starts counting once your money has actually sat in a long term market for the long term, making anything akin to compounding through reinvestment very inefficient. This is not a traditional banking system, so we can make it do what we want.

@MattP Haha that's true that we do print a fair bit of money! But I still say that this mechanism of compound interest is fundamentally different in that it leads to exponential increases in money printing, even on an individual basis. That makes it unworkable medium to long term. And the same is not true of betting streaks or the unique trader bonus.

@JamesGrugett Don't y'all already print a lot of money?

@JamesGrugett I'd expect it to be a lot less money than the daily betting bonus.

@TANSTAAFL That's true, interest is definitely a simpler concept. Unfortunately, it's positive-sum: we'd have to print a lot of money to make it work.

@cos It is a similar solution, but counterintuitive to me. Loans don't improve my net worth and I could even end up negative. Interest is the opposite.

@TANSTAAFL @Gurkenglas does the current system count for this?

Is this gonna be closed and resolved anytime soon? it's accumulated a lot of cruft and clutter suggestions that everyone ought to have sold off from by now, but not everyone is paying attention.

@TANSTAAFL a few seconds ago

Poll market alternate: each user can buy up to a maximum amount

@everysteve "delete comment" would also be nice

Both my own and in markets I created

@extent_of_foxes strong -1. Consider the case of a connected universe like the Cosmere. Just because I am caught up on what's happening in Mistborn does not mean I am caught up with say, Warbreaker. This severely limits how useful the feature is for the cases I am interested in

Actually even better than having a "spoilers" section would be simply that hidden markets are not hidden when you view them from a group's page.

+1 to hiding the markets tagged with a tag that has the "in progress fiction" property, where these markets are only viewable when you search by that tag, and they don't send notifications for comments or resolution. Another alternative would be a single special tag #spoilers or something that hides all markets with that tag. Upside is that this might be easier to implement, and simpler to add an easy way to view all relevant activity involving spoilery markets. Downside is that someone following multiple pieces of in-progress fiction has to catch up on all of them before looking at the spoilers section.

@LivInTheLookingGlass some but not all, it's complicated

@bcongdon Do you get any portion of these funds back at market close?

@EndoviorE You can add liquidity to YES/NO markets if you click open the market details modal by clicking the "three dots" button

@Gurkenglas It'd be neat if it was possible to do this for yes/no markets, instead of just for arbitrary markets.

@Undox Yes yes yes

sigh I have been spoiled on too much Mad Investor Chaos from this site

@jbeshir hmm. I feel like public comments would be more useful than private comments. Maybe everyone's reputation should itself be a prediction market...

@p_journal I'm working on it!