Gurkenglas avatar
closes Dec 31, 9999
Suggest features.
There is no reason the next feature market should wait until the resolution of https://manifold.markets/Austin/what-new-manifold-features-would-be . I plan to resolve PROB so as to create good incentives. For example, if someone finds a loophole and stakes M$ 10000 one second before closing time, expecting to siphon this pool into their account for no meaningful contribution, and this is plain as day to all involved, I expect to try to make sure they don't profit. If someone gives an answer you expect deserves payment, and so you immediately double their stake, allowing them to immediately cash out at a profit, that is a reasonable way to gain the payout they would have. I too may do so, if I make sure to not unduly profit from insider knowledge. I plan to pay out 3% of profits on this market, that is, 75% of the creator's commission, to the ANTE answer, allowing others to subsidize this market. The remaining percentage point seems a fair commission for my administration. The rules may change in the face of good arguments, especially when that doesn't discourage early contribution. I won't ignore the incentives of people that have already acted. In fact, good arguments in the form of answers will be rewarded! For this "smart contract" with a human in place of a blockchain also could use feature suggestions. But do mark such answers "Meta: ". I don't plan to reward previously suggested features unless you weren't paid enough for them. I think you should be paid for your feature requests that have already been implemented before this market's creation, but I will take the opinions of ANTE stakes into account here. I consent to this market being transferred to another user by Manifold staff if future me behaves in ways that apparent present me grossly disapproves of. If I get tired of this, I may say so and close this after 24 hours. If Manifold doesn't implement partial payouts and history archival in time we may have to close and reopen this.
Gurkenglas avatarANTE: Stake on this to subsidize the market.
21%
MilliOnaire avatarLinkable Comments
15%
NathanHelmBurger avatarAbility to optionally privately enter your expectation of outcome when making a purchase, for the purpose of having a personal calibration curve. Justification: I find that making calibration curves for myself is fun and helps improve my forecasting, and that my calibration curve gets less accurate after a few months if I stop practicing. But the practice takes effort, which could be piggy-backed on the forecasting activity of participating in prediction markets for less effort than doing it seperately.
10%
Honourary avatarMerge duplicate Answers for multiple Answer Questions https://manifold.markets/Honourary/will-manifold-markets-add-a-merge-f
7%
edgrr avatarSpoiler tags to hide markets about in progress fiction
5%
ConnorMcCormick avatarReminders. Allow users to set a custom reminder to return to a market.
5%
NcyRocks avatarAbility to include a short message when resolving a market
4%
Undox avatarKelly
4%
LivInTheLookingGlass avatarAbility to short multiple choice answers
3%
extent_of_foxes avatarRetroactively close a market, undoing bets after the new close time. (Reward predictions before the events happened, not betting really quickly after hearing the news.)
3%
extent_of_foxes avatarMore explanation for people who don't know anything about prediction markets.
3%
extent_of_foxes avatarMechanism for making decisions (built-in bundle of conditional markets?) with better incentives for betters (not beauty contest)
3%
p_journal avatarAbility to tip users M$ for helpful comments.
2%
ian avatarAllow users to edit their comments
1.8%
pc123 avatarAbility to delete comments.
1.8%
jbeshir avatarAbility to attach (private) personal notes to other users (e.g. to keep track of who you've observed be a good market resolver)
1.4%
tigrennatenn avatarShort answers on free response questions
1.3%
pc123 avatarFilter OUT market categories on the homepage.
1.0%
JonathanNankivell avatarCombinatorial Prediction Markets
1.0%
Add your answer
Sort by:
TANSTAAFL
answered
Earn interest on M$ tied up in long time horizon bets.
Duncan avatar
TANSTAAFL
answered
Earn interest on M$ tied up in long time horizon bets.
JamesGrugett avatar
TANSTAAFL
answered
Earn interest on M$ tied up in long time horizon bets.
MattP avatar
TANSTAAFL
answered
Earn interest on M$ tied up in long time horizon bets.
Duncan avatar
TANSTAAFL
answered
Earn interest on M$ tied up in long time horizon bets.
JamesGrugett avatar
TANSTAAFL
answered
Earn interest on M$ tied up in long time horizon bets.
TANSTAAFL avatar
TANSTAAFL
answered
Earn interest on M$ tied up in long time horizon bets.
cos avatar
hamnox avatar
TANSTAAFL
answered
A "poll" category of market. You can buy as many votes as you want but the payout is unrelated to which answer wins. (Could be zero, could reverse the system so bettors get 4% and the creator gets the balance, or something else.)
NoRespect avatar
NoRespect avatar
NoRespect avatar
pc123
answered
Ability to delete comments.
LivInTheLookingGlass avatar
Olivia
bought Ṁ5
edgrr
answered
Spoiler tags to hide markets about in progress fiction
LivInTheLookingGlass avatar
@extent_of_foxes strong -1. Consider the case of a connected universe like the Cosmere. Just because I am caught up on what's happening in Mistborn does not mean I am caught up with say, Warbreaker. This severely limits how useful the feature is for the cases I am interested in
edgrr
answered
Spoiler tags to hide markets about in progress fiction
extent_of_foxes avatar
Actually even better than having a "spoilers" section would be simply that hidden markets are not hidden when you view them from a group's page.
edgrr
answered
Spoiler tags to hide markets about in progress fiction
extent_of_foxes avatar
+1 to hiding the markets tagged with a tag that has the "in progress fiction" property, where these markets are only viewable when you search by that tag, and they don't send notifications for comments or resolution. Another alternative would be a single special tag #spoilers or something that hides all markets with that tag. Upside is that this might be easier to implement, and simpler to add an easy way to view all relevant activity involving spoilery markets. Downside is that someone following multiple pieces of in-progress fiction has to catch up on all of them before looking at the spoilers section.
Gurkenglas
answered
ANTE: Stake on this to subsidize the market.
ahalekelly avatar
@LivInTheLookingGlass some but not all, it's complicated
Gurkenglas
answered
ANTE: Stake on this to subsidize the market.
LivInTheLookingGlass avatar
@bcongdon Do you get any portion of these funds back at market close?
Gurkenglas
answered
ANTE: Stake on this to subsidize the market.
bcongdon avatar
@EndoviorE You can add liquidity to YES/NO markets if you click open the market details modal by clicking the "three dots" button
Gurkenglas
answered
ANTE: Stake on this to subsidize the market.
Endovior avatar
@Gurkenglas It'd be neat if it was possible to do this for yes/no markets, instead of just for arbitrary markets.
Undox
answered
Kelly
Devansh avatar
Devansh
bought Ṁ100
@Undox Yes yes yes
edgrr
answered
Spoiler tags to hide markets about in progress fiction
Sinclair avatar
sigh I have been spoiled on too much Mad Investor Chaos from this site
John Beshir
answered
Ability to attach (private) personal notes to other users (e.g. to keep track of who you've observed be a good market resolver)
Sinclair avatar
@jbeshir hmm. I feel like public comments would be more useful than private comments. Maybe everyone's reputation should itself be a prediction market...
p_journal
answered
Ability to tip users M$ for helpful comments.
Sinclair avatar
@p_journal I'm working on it!
A meta-market. Simple exchange that lets you place a bid/sell order for shares of whatever market.
Sinclair avatar
sounds like limit orders
Reducing the number of personal questions (eg. "Will I do ...")
Sinclair avatar
sound like filtering would work for this
tigrennatenn
answered
Short answers on free response questions
Sinclair avatar
goodest idea! not that hard in tech or design and super useful
Nathan
answered
Ability to optionally privately enter your expectation of outcome when making a purchase, for the purpose of having a personal calibration curve. Justification: I find that making calibration curves for myself is fun and helps improve my forecasting, and that my calibration curve gets less accurate after a few months if I stop practicing. But the practice takes effort, which could be piggy-backed on the forecasting activity of participating in prediction markets for less effort than doing it seperately.
Sinclair avatar
sounds like limit orders
Milli Onaire
answered
Linkable Comments
Gurkenglas avatar
Gurkenglas
bought Ṁ40
This one seems easy to do and I don't remember hearing it suggested.
Milli avatar
@Gurkenglas it is implemented now.
howtodowtle avatar
howtodowtle
bought Ṁ1
Currently, when I buy an option multiple times (e.g., when balancing probabilities between two answers), all my trades are listed in the timeline view (forever) and are clogging the screen. I need to scroll down lots to even see the next answer. My feature request is to bundle them the same way other trades are bundled, e.g., "You bought M$ 50 and sold M$ 10. 2 weeks ago".
Undox avatar
Undox
bought Ṁ1
Every gambling site should have a Kelly. It would ask you your opinion on the market prob and suggest a suitable bet size based on the current market prob, share cost, existing bets, liquidity and the Kelly Criterion.
Undox avatar
Undox
bought Ṁ1
Show me money in and out of my liquid balance for the last X days or by month. Like a bank would show you. Let’s not be all mystique like eBay about the cash flows! I would rate this more important than the “performance tracking” features.
Undox avatar
Undox
bought Ṁ1
This is something browser extensions thats already exist can provide btw. I think it is an orthogonal feature (you may want to make notes on a linked in profile or twitter profile, all can be done with a plugin). Unfortunately syncing between different browsers is a hassle but for me it is enough to have notes on one PC
Undox avatar
Undox
bought Ṁ5
# That would be *Really* cool!
Sjlver avatar
Sjlver
bought Ṁ10
All the cool sites (eg StackOverflow, GitHub, Discourse) support Markdown. Discord uses it too, to format chat messages.
hamnox avatar
Obvious way to get this is supporting some kind of formatting, like markdown or bbcode
Undox avatar
Undox
bought Ṁ1
I don't see how browser zoom helps. If you have a market open for 3 months and you want to see the last 3 hours trading in detail, with minutely markers on the X axis. Like most trading charts online let you do.
Gurkenglas avatar
Gurkenglas
bought Ṁ1
You can use the browser's zoom function, usually Ctrl-+.
Gurkenglas avatar
Gurkenglas
bought Ṁ1
Downstream of a writeful API.
Undox avatar
Undox
bought Ṁ1
Some answers are meta about the market's chart or some other market's chart. The given scale on the chart can make it hard to read off. In addition hover tips showing the % and date/time at each point would be useful. Downloading as csv would be useful too.
ConnorMcCormick avatar
Connor McCormick
bought Ṁ20
Email reminder
Austin avatar
Austin
bought Ṁ1
I'm not worried about the cost so much as the tone shift of the site - I kinda like how text-based it is at the moment, reminiscent more of old-school text forums than meme-y modern sites. That said, I think image support is one of the "when, not if" features.
hamnox avatar
Have wanted this for a while
hamnox avatar
That'd be fun, but hosting images can get pricey real quickly. I can see them not wanting to do that. *Embedding* imgs hosted elsewhere might do.
Gurkenglas avatar
Gurkenglas
sold Ṁ380
Paying out 100 to #16.
Milli avatar
@Gurkenglas Link dead. Because of changes to the site?
Milli avatar
@Gurkenglas Link dead. Because of changes to the site?
Gurkenglas avatar
Gurkenglas
bought Ṁ1
This would be addressed by profit-based fees.
TANSTAAFL avatar
TANSTAAFL
bought Ṁ10
The value of long horizon markets is in the relative movement, not the resolution. Users should be incentivized to buy or sell their positions in these markets as the market moves and their expectations update.
Gurkenglas avatar
Gurkenglas
bought Ṁ1
Rephrasing: Your answer sounded constructed to be a feature I wish existed, so that I would buy into it, so you could sell at a profit. But of course that would be wishful thinking of me.
Austin avatar
Austin
bought Ṁ100
Happy to subsidize this (out of pocket :P)
p_journal avatar
p_journal
bought Ṁ1
Sorry, I think I don't understand your comment. I *think* it implies I don't understand the right way to use this space? I just had an idea, and thought it was important so I self-boosted the ante for that idea b/c I believe in it. But maybe that was not the intended way to play here, sorry.
Accountdeletionrequested avatar
@Em of the Night > I'm not sure what is here meant by current placed, can I get clarification? Ops, I meant "currently placed bets/trades". I was unsure which word to select and used neither. When I look at markets I sometimes open it just to discover that I placed some bet there (often loan-based one as my point supply is low). It would be nice to have ability to distinguish fresh markets from ones where I participated already. There is plenty of space available, enough to display "20 for NO" or "737 for NO, 12 for YES" or "position sold".
Gurkenglas avatar
Gurkenglas
bought Ṁ20
I'm weakly guessing M'd like to sort `Your Trades` by the amount he could add to his balance by selling his position there. I've long wanted this, but here's M$ 20 for prompting me to think of this being different from "amount his balance would change by selling his entire position in that market", which is silly and yet another argument for merging all of a user's positions per market.
hamnox avatar
I'm not sure what is here meant by current placed, can I get clarification?
Gurkenglas avatar
Gurkenglas
bought Ṁ1
Oh! Is this whatever I'd like, so I'll buy it off you? Clever, but I should buy what I want *said*, not what I want implemented.
hamnox avatar
This is clever
Gurkenglas avatar
Gurkenglas
sold Ṁ1
*hours. ^^
Gurkenglas avatar
Gurkenglas
bought Ṁ1
Oh, actually your borrowing after me would mean profit for you. Then I suppose the loan can last another up to 8:30 minutes while apparently people are still hoping for their feature to win the lottery.
Gurkenglas avatar
Gurkenglas
bought Ṁ283
Just borrowing some liquidity while the Ukraine market just reopened, you will be reimbursed for losses incurred by borrowing after I did.
tigrennatenn avatar
tigrennatenn
bought Ṁ5
To clarify this, I mean something like the ability to "Buy NO" on a specific answer to a free response question. (Just realized this might be ambiguous, since "short" is an adjective as well as a verb.)
Gurkenglas avatar
Gurkenglas
bought Ṁ1
This is already implemented, please state some evidence that you caused that. I'll try to judge how likely this would have been to happen absent you. If "not at all" that is sure worth at least 100 from the ante right now!
Gurkenglas avatar
Gurkenglas
bought Ṁ1,000
Note that if Manifold decides to subsidize this market, ANTE is a great investment!