Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Bitcoin's price reaches a new all-time high (ATH) at any point during 2026. Bitcoin's current ATH is $126,000, set in October 2025. Resolution will be determined by checking Bitcoin's price history on major price tracking sources such as CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap. The market resolves YES if Bitcoin closes above $126,000 on any date in 2026; otherwise it resolves NO.

Background

Bitcoin reached $111,814 in May 2025, $122,838 in July, and $124,128 in August before reaching its ATH of $125,835.92 in October 2025. After the October peak, Bitcoin experienced a sharp retracement and closed 2025 near $87,000 amid fading momentum and macro uncertainty. As of March 3, 2026, Bitcoin is trading around $68,770, representing a decline of more than $17,000 compared to one year prior.

Considerations

Bitcoin typically follows a four-year cycle linked to halving events, with accumulation lasting around 18 months, followed by a 6–12 month parabolic rally, then a 12–18-month bear market. After the October 2025 peak, a correction followed in early 2026. Institutional capital entrance has potentially caused steadier price movements compared to previous cycles characterized by blow-off tops, and some proponents suggest Bitcoin may no longer experience significant upside swings.

This description was generated by AI.