Resolution criteria

This market resolves based on the lowest intraday price (in USD) that Bitcoin (BTC) trades at on Coinbase (BTC-USD) at any point from the market's creation (August 20, 2026) through December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.

To satisfy the mutually exclusive nature of this DEPENDENT_MULTIPLE_CHOICE market, the options are defined as brackets:

• 60 000: Resolves YES if BTC trades below $60,000.00 at any point during the specified period, but never trades below $50,000.00.

• 50 000: Resolves YES if BTC trades below $50,000.00 at any point during the specified period, but never trades below $40,000.00.

• 40000: Resolves YES if BTC trades below $40,000.00 at any point during the specified period.

Edge Cases & Preconditions:

• Precondition: If BTC does not drop below $60,000.00 at any point between the market's creation and the end of 2026, the entire market will resolve N/A.

• Source of Truth: Resolution will be determined using the lowest wick on Coinbase's BTC-USD trading pair as tracked on TradingView, with CoinGecko or Yahoo Finance serving as backup references.

Background

Bitcoin (BTC) hit an all-time high of approximately $126,200 in October 2025 before undergoing a correction in early 2026. In June 2026, BTC reached a yearly low of approximately $57,718 on Coinbase amid significant ETF outflows and shifting Federal Reserve interest-rate expectations.

As of late August 2026, Bitcoin has rebounded and is consolidating in the low $70,000s. This market tracks whether the correction will deepen and push Bitcoin below these major psychological support levels before the year ends.

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