Will Starship reach Earth orbit before the Blue Origin Lunar Lander?

Question

Resolution criteria

Resolution will require the vehicle to reach a nominal orbit all other mission goals will not apply to the resolution criteria.

Background

Starship has never reached orbit; instead, SpaceX has followed a suborbital trajectory for the 10 integrated flight tests conducted to date.

Blue Moon Pathfinder Mission 1 is a planned robotic lunar landing mission to be operated by Blue Origin, set to launch no earlier than early 2026. The Blue Moon lander is to be capable of conducting crewed lunar landings lasting up to 30 days, pending an uncrewed demonstration flight scheduled for 2027.

Considerations

Both vehicles face significant technical and regulatory hurdles. Starship has never reached orbit, and achieving this milestone requires successful completion of multiple systems during a single flight. Blue Moon Mark 1 will demonstrate critical systems, including the BE-7 engine, cryogenic fluid power and propulsion systems, avionics, continuous downlink communications, and precision landing.

This description was partially generated by AI. Much was deleted for technical inaccuracy.

Update 2026-04-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the Blue Origin side of this market, resolution only requires Blue Moon to reach a nominal orbit — it does not need to transit to the Moon or land. The same orbital-insertion-only criterion applies to both vehicles.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 90% chance (28 traders, as of Aug 3, 2026).