Will the first video generation model cost >$0.10/minute?
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Any reasonable quality
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The "first" video generation model already exists. It all hangs on "reasonable quality", which I don't know what to make of.
An H100 costs ~$1.89/hour, which is ~3min for $0.1, so if a H100 can produce 1min of video (60s*30fps=1800 frames) in ~3min of GPU time (~10fps), then it'd resolve NO.
How these frames are rendered, at what resolution, whether upscaling or frame interpolation is used, etc will have a big impact. Makes "reasonable quality" a difficult measure, but I suppose 720p 30fps with frame interpolation every other frame (15fps raw) and 1.5x upscaling (from 480p) might count? Which capabilities it needs to have to count is still unclear.
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