This market resolves YES if, by January 1, 2027, I can prompt a text-to-video generator to create a 1 minute video and get a result meeting the following criteria:
I have to wait no more than one second for the video to load (either at the beginning or anywhere in the middle)
At least 1080p resolution
At least 24 frames per second
Subjectively, at least as realistic and visually appealing as the "stylish woman walks down a Tokyo street" example from Sora
If I wanted to, I could do this 100 times on the same day and pay less than $20 (this accounts for various pricing schemes, e.g. subscription-based or pay-per-video)
It's fine if the entire video isn't generated by the time it starts playing - it can "stream" to my device. I will make sure I have good Wi-Fi and try up to 5 times if necessary.
I will use the same prompt as the original Sora video:
A stylish woman walks down a Tokyo street filled with warm glowing neon and animated city signage. She wears a black leather jacket, a long red dress, and black boots, and carries a black purse. She wears sunglasses and red lipstick. She walks confidently and casually. The street is damp and reflective, creating a mirror effect of the colorful lights. Many pedestrians walk about.
Similar market for 2030:
1,000
3.00