In 2028, Will a >5 min video completely generated by an AI have more than 1 billion views on Youtube?

Resolves YES if at any point before Jan 1, 2029 there is a video on Youtube more than 5 minutes long which I am more than 80% confident is completely generated by AI and which has over 1 billion views.

To make the judgement on whether it's made by an AI I'll consider whether the technology of the time is capable of the task and obviously if the description of the video says it's made entirely by AI. As well as other evidence such as "behind-the-scenes" journalism, videos, etc

The video must be made entirely based on a single prompt (not cut together or edited by a human). Therefore, common techniques used today such as masking an AI over an existing video would not qualify.

The sound of the video may be human made but if it is, it must not be an integral part of its popularity (such as a music video)

Feel free to ask more questions in the comments and I'll try to add clarifications in the description!

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roma avatar
Romabought Ṁ50 of NO

For reference, if this playlist can be trusted, there are like 10-15 videos that are:
- 5+ minutes long,
- uploaded in the last 4 years (4 years is roughly how much AI video will have if uploaded now),
- have 1b views.

15 out of all videos in the last 4 years is a high bar, but you never know with AI...

DylanSlagh avatar
Dylan Slagh

@roma A lot of those are music videos as well. so the AI would have to get pretty good at making music as well. Although that might be the easiest path...