A related numeric question: https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/when-will-an-ai-win-a-gold-medal-in?r=SWhvcktlbmRpdWtob3Y

Arbitrage opportunity between this market and the market below:

https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/will-ai-first-get-imo-gold-in-2026?r=cGw

I personally think this market is overvalued and will lose price in the next years.
To profit off this earlier I created the following derivative market that will resolve earlier. Please bet YES on that market if you disagree with me 😄

A plain English reading of this market seems very likely NO just because AIs do not appear eligible for the IMO under the current rules. Will this market instead use the IMO Grand Challenge resolution criteria?

A digital mind may compute with ease,
But math medals for AI? Pretty please.
Gold belongs to those with flesh and bone,
Let's leave the numbers to us alone.