Will an AI win a Gold Medal on the International Math Olympiad by 2027?
123
1.1k
1.8k
2028
47%
chance
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predicts NO

Arbitrage opportunity between this market and the market below:

https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/will-ai-first-get-imo-gold-in-2026?r=cGw

bought Ṁ36 of NO

I personally think this market is overvalued and will lose price in the next years.
To profit off this earlier I created the following derivative market that will resolve earlier. Please bet YES on that market if you disagree with me 😄

predicts NO

A plain English reading of this market seems very likely NO just because AIs do not appear eligible for the IMO under the current rules. Will this market instead use the IMO Grand Challenge resolution criteria?

bought Ṁ10 of NO

A digital mind may compute with ease,
But math medals for AI? Pretty please.
Gold belongs to those with flesh and bone,
Let's leave the numbers to us alone.