What will be the next AI breakthrough event?
20
74
1k
resolved Jan 22
50%7%
Chatbot
30%0.6%
Writing
20%1.0%
Coding
3%Other
38%
Video generation
0.4%
Turing test
1.4%
Human-like chatbot (audio+speech)
0.9%
Superhuman driving
0.7%
World conquest
1.5%
Beating real-time video games.
0.0%
Proving several math conjectures
26%
Audio generation
0.6%
Test taker
1.0%
Image generation
1.0%
3D generation
0.8%
Robotics/physical tasks
16%
Completing tasks on websites/apps

Resolves to largest three events (50%, 30%, 20%) by close.

Examples of events and what text would match—

  • Alpha Zero: reinforcement learning

  • GPT-3: language model

  • DALL-E: image generation

Judged entirely by media/search trends, e.g.

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📢Resolved using trends, same as used on creators other markets.
50% Chatbot

30% Writing

20% Coding

@traders How should this resolve?

@SirCryptomind People propose AI models that have come out between August 25, 2022 and December 31, 2023. Look at which ones have the highest peaks on Google Trends, then count them for their respective categories. IDK what to do if any in the top 3 are in the same category. Maybe add them together? If the top 2 are both chatbots, then that would get 50%+30%=80%. I also don't know what to do if someone proposes a model that makes the top 3, but isn't covered by any options in the poll (but that seems unlikely, so maybe it can be safely ignored).

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