Which of the following will be true about the next major AI breakthrough? (after test-time compute)
Which of the following will be true about the next major AI breakthrough? (after test-time compute)
1
1kṀ22030
50%
It will allow AI models to hallucinate much less
50%
It will allow AI models to become much better at working with long-context
50%
It will allow AI models to use long context more efficiently
50%
It will make AI models better at making art (creative writing, visual art)
50%
It will make make AI models better at visual reasoning
50%
it will make AI models better at agentic tasks (such as OSWorld and SWE-bench)
50%
It will make AI models much better at answering competitive math questions
50%
It will allow AI models to learn at test time
Whether something counts as a breakthrough is according to my subjective judgement. Some examples of things I consider breakthroughs:
Transformer architecture
RLHF
Test-time compute
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What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
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