In which decade will China's GDP surpass US GDP?

Question

Some predict that China's GDP will surpass the US sooner or later. When will it happen according to World Bank data?

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Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 2030-2039, followed by after 2049 or never and before 2030 are most likely. See the market for live updates (56 traders, as of Jul 19, 2026).