In which decade will China's GDP surpass US GDP?

Question

Some predict that China's GDP will surpass the US sooner or later. When will it happen according to World Bank data?

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Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 2030-2039, followed by after 2049 or never and 2040-49 are most likely. See the market for live updates (61 traders, as of Aug 5, 2026).