In what month will China invade Taiwan? | Manifold

In what month will China invade Taiwan?

Basic

18

Ṁ838

2031

45%

Other

43%

Never

4%

October 2027

4%

April 2028

Resolution criteria: The Associated Press and the New York Times both report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan* Or At least 1000 military personnel from the People's Liberation Army have been deployed to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island under PRC rule. *The date that is reported within the articles rather than the date of publication of the articles, will be considered the invasion date.

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@SG some mana for you to make here 😆

Under what circumstances will this resolve to NEVER?

I sold the shares when I learned the Parimutuel system, which may shift the odds over time, is used. It would be nice to have AMM for multi- choice as well.

@GiorgiGiorgi This is the best answer so far.

would be restricted to two “windows” of attack, from May to July and the month of October. https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2535&context=nwc-review

Only 2 months of the year is it even possible because of the tides. April and October.

@BTE Fascinating, thank you. Anywhere I can look to read more?

& why 2023?

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