First region where US initiates military operations by July 2025
First region where US initiates military operations by July 2025
3
100Ṁ16Jul 20
18%
South China Sea
18%
Taiwan Strait
18%
Middle East
15%
Eastern Europe
15%
Korean Peninsula
18%
Based on current global tensions, which region will see the first US-initiated military operations? Resolution criteria: Official Pentagon announcements or verified media reports of US forces initiating combat operations. Source: https://www.defense.gov/News/
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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