This market resolves YES if there is a direct military engagement between the armed forces of the United States and Canada before January 20, 2029. Resolution criteria:
Must involve official government forces (ex. uniformed military, national guard, or police acting in an official capacity, not private militias or individuals)
Must include exchange of fire or direct combat operations
Must result in the creation of a wikipedia page, with a table indicating at least 10 total casualties or losses and with the USA and Canada as belligerents on opposing sides, and that page must remain up for at least a week. (ex. this page)
Sources for context:
Current US-Canada relations: https://www.gzeromedia.com/gzero-north/six-issues-that-will-shape-us-canada-relations-in-2025
Canadian military readiness: https://warontherocks.com/2024/04/dont-count-on-us-canadas-military-unreadiness/