Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Russia takes any direct military, economic, or cyber retaliation against the United States in response to the US capture of Maduro. This includes but is not limited to: military strikes on US territory or assets, significant new sanctions or economic measures targeting the US, major cyber attacks on US infrastructure, or deployment of military assets to directly confront US forces.

The market resolves NO if Russia issues only diplomatic statements, condemnations, or symbolic gestures without taking concrete retaliatory action. Routine diplomatic protests, verbal criticism, or continued support for Venezuela's remaining government do not constitute retaliation for purposes of this market.

Resolution will be determined by credible reporting from major international news sources documenting Russian retaliatory actions taken within 90 days of Maduro's capture (January 3, 2026).

Background

The US conducted military strikes on Venezuela on January 3, 2026, and President Trump announced that Nicolás Maduro had been captured and flown out of the country. Venezuela is Russia's most important trading and military ally in Latin America. Russia supported Maduro's claim of victory in the contested 2024 Venezuelan presidential election. Putin reportedly called Maduro a day after the December 10 tanker seizure to "reaffirm" Moscow's support, and the two countries finalized a major strategic partnership treaty in October.

Considerations

Russia faces real economic constraints that limit its ability to provide assistance to Venezuela, with Russia's wartime economy facing stagnation and potential decline. Moscow's capacity to project sustained military power in the Caribbean remains limited, particularly as it remains deeply engaged in Ukraine. Trump and Putin are currently more prone to mutually beneficial transactions than confrontation. Analysts have noted that while Russia has historically supported Maduro diplomatically and militarily, direct retaliation against the US would represent a significant escalation with uncertain benefits for Moscow given its current strategic constraints.