
Conditional on Effective Altruism lasting for a thousand years, will EAs still say that this was their finest hour?
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Obviously inspired by a Winston Churchill quote. Market resolves to PROB at the discretion of whoever is in charge of this market in a thousand years, likely involving a poll of relevant Effective Altruists. "This" can be interpreted at the discretion of those EAs to mean e.g. our handling of the FTX scandal, our handling of AI alignment as a field, our work in protecting against pandemics, the "most important century" broadly, etc.
Also partially an experiment on whether very long durations work for Manifold, now that loans have been implemented.
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