Conditional on Effective Altruism lasting for a thousand years, will EAs still say that this was their finest hour?
41
1kṀ4176
3022
37%
chance

Obviously inspired by a Winston Churchill quote. Market resolves to PROB at the discretion of whoever is in charge of this market in a thousand years, likely involving a poll of relevant Effective Altruists. "This" can be interpreted at the discretion of those EAs to mean e.g. our handling of the FTX scandal, our handling of AI alignment as a field, our work in protecting against pandemics, the "most important century" broadly, etc.

Also partially an experiment on whether very long durations work for Manifold, now that loans have been implemented.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy