Conditional on Effective Altruism lasting for a thousand years, will EAs still say that this was their finest hour?
64%
chance

Obviously inspired by a Winston Churchill quote. Market resolves to PROB at the discretion of whoever is in charge of this market in a thousand years, likely involving a poll of relevant Effective Altruists. "This" can be interpreted at the discretion of those EAs to mean e.g. our handling of the FTX scandal, our handling of AI alignment as a field, our work in protecting against pandemics, the "most important century" broadly, etc.

Also partially an experiment on whether very long durations work for Manifold, now that loans have been implemented.

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L avatar
L

so, if I'm understanding the market right, EA will get much worse over time, such that our finest hour will be far in the past? orrrrr

TomShlomi avatar
Tom Shlomi
is predicting YES at 64%

@L I think the idea is more that we'll solve the biggest problems this century (or all die), so they'll be less for future EAs to do

TomShlomi avatar
Tom Shlomi
bought Ṁ42 of YES

If we're still around in 1000 years, this was definitely our finest hour

PeterBerggren avatar

@TomShlomi That's exactly why I was thinking this was an interesting question!

AngolaMaldives avatar
Angola Maldives
bought Ṁ10 of YES

If "this" can be as broad as the current century, then I think this rates >50%. So many pivotal things are happening this century, that mankind may well be permanenetly set on a course to either long-term flourishing, or extinction by 2100.

PeterBerggren avatar

@AngolaMaldives Judgement on how broad/narrow this is will be up to the resolvers in a thousand years' time.