Obviously inspired by a Winston Churchill quote. Market resolves to PROB at the discretion of whoever is in charge of this market in a thousand years, likely involving a poll of relevant Effective Altruists. "This" can be interpreted at the discretion of those EAs to mean e.g. our handling of the FTX scandal, our handling of AI alignment as a field, our work in protecting against pandemics, the "most important century" broadly, etc.
Also partially an experiment on whether very long durations work for Manifold, now that loans have been implemented.
so, if I'm understanding the market right, EA will get much worse over time, such that our finest hour will be far in the past? orrrrr
If we're still around in 1000 years, this was definitely our finest hour
If "this" can be as broad as the current century, then I think this rates >50%. So many pivotal things are happening this century, that mankind may well be permanenetly set on a course to either long-term flourishing, or extinction by 2100.