Will Jonathan Ray's market on the causes of the increase of life expectancy resolve as intended?

204Ṁ351

2060

38%

chance

ALL

This market resolves yes if the following market fits all the following criteria:

resolves within a reasonable time after 2050 (and not before!)
doesn't NA
the total probabilities add up to 100%

This market resolves no if any of the criteria above aren't fulfilled or clearly won't be able to be fulfilled. (This includes if Manifold stops existing)

https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/how-will-scientific-consensus-in-20

How will scientific consensus in 2050 apportion the causes of increased life expectancy from 1000AD to 2000AD in Europe?

Each answer resolves PROB to the percent attributable, based on scientific consensus in 2050. They will sum to 100%. This might be a little subjective so I won't trade on it.

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This market resolves no if Manifold stops existing? How? 😁

@4fa If Manifold announces it will close down, I will resolve this to no. Alternatively, Manifold might want to resolve the market that can be resolved before completely shutting down.