How will scientific consensus in 2050 apportion the causes of increased life expectancy from 1000AD to 2000AD in Europe?
馃拵
Premium
22
38k
2051
29%
improved diet
15d
37%
increased sanitation / hygiene / clean air+water
15d
33%
vaccines and antibiotics
15d
34%
medical ex-vaccines/antibiotics
15d
30%
reduced war / homicide / execution / child abandonment
15d
34%
all other cuases
15d

Each answer resolves PROB to the percent attributable, based on scientific consensus in 2050. They will sum to 100%. This might be a little subjective so I won't trade on it.

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What鈥檚 the resolution mechanism to decide scientific consensus? Would love to trade if this was operationalised :)

I鈥檒l search around on google scholar and decide

how would you have graded the options if the resolution was today, instead?

bought 峁50 improved diet NO

If you're doing "increased life expectancy", and not "life expectancy in adulthood", it should be almost entirely due to decreased childhood mortality. Something like 50% of all humans before 1800 died before age of 5, that drastically reduces life expectancy.

A lot of that was being too poor to feed the children, and either abandoning them or watching them starve.

industrial revolution was the tipping point on child mortality, because it made people rich enough to not starve their kids

Hey manifold we neeeeed a loans system

also we need positions on a linked market to be linked so that your capital requirement is your max loss on the market instead of the sum of the positions, as I told @Gen at manifest

premium + resolves in 2050 is not a good choice imo

So much liquidity subsidy in a premium market that it's hard to correct the 100% overbet or move the needle?

The main issue is the time value of money. With no interest and no loan system it鈥檚 not worth it to correct a 30% mispricing that doesn鈥檛 resolve for 26 years

Figured there'd still be movement from folks looking to profit off some short-term movement towards interest-rate levels. <shrug> oh well

Not starving to death or being malnourished counts as improved diet, so improved diet should probably be the highest not the lowest, considering Malthusian conditions that prevailed before ind rev

bought 峁100 improved diet NO

These currently sum to 200%, who wants to correct?

@SG I accidentally made this unlinked, is there any way to switch it to linked?

a preview feature would have helped

bought 峁50 reduced war / homici... NO

I've done the same thing, agree preview would help.