Will the world's average life expectance go above 75 years before 2035?
19
64
370
2035
82%
chance

The maximum ever was 73 years, in 2019.

I will use this data to resolve: Life Expectancy - Our World in Data

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I bet "Yes" because my predicted life expectancy in 2035 based on the previous data was 76.27 years old which is higher than 75 years old.

I used the life expectancy data (2000-2015) issued by the World Bank and predicted the estimated life expectancy by applying multi-regression analysis and forecasting analysis.

Based on the multi-regression analysis, 9 factors including BMI, the number of infant deaths, the number of patients with HIV/AIDS, etc. were shown to be related to life expectancy. By applying the formula to each forecasted factor, the predicted life expectancy in 2035 resulted in 76.27 years old.

Assuming the normal distribution, the probability of > 75 will be higher than 50%. So, I conclude that the world's average life expectancy will go above 75 years before 2035.

The limitation of this analysis is its inability to explain changes in mortality at specific ages. For a more detailed analysis, it is desirable to use the life table method to predict age-specific mortality rates and to calculate life expectancy from the results.

Resource:

・Retrieved by Oct 24 2023, The World Data Bank, World development indicator, https://databank.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN/1ff4a498/Popular-Indicators