Will Tesla have a fleet of at least N robotaxis actively operating by the end of 2026?

Question

Update 2025-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has added answer options for the following values of N:

100

500

Update 2025-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided the following definitions for how the market will be resolved:

A robotaxi service is defined as one where a user can request a ride on-demand, similar to Uber or Lyft. It will still count if riders must first join a waitlist.

The fleet size will be determined by the total number of Teslas used for an autonomous ride by someone other than the owner.

A vehicle is considered "actively operating" if it provides at least one such ride within any given week.

Update 2025-06-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question, the creator has specified that a vehicle will be counted as a robotaxi even if a safety monitor is present, as long as there is no human in the driver's seat.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, N = 500, followed by N = 1000 and N = 10,000 are most likely. See the market for live updates (103 traders, as of Nov 7, 2026).