Background Asteroid 2024 YR4, discovered in January 2024, is currently at the top of ESA's risk list. The asteroid is estimated to be 40-100 meters in diameter with a 1.3% probability of Earth impact on December 22, 2032. The asteroid will be observable until early April 2025 and then again in June 2028, allowing for refined trajectory calculations.

Resolution Criteria This market resolves YES if any space agency, organization, or private entity launches a mission specifically intended to deflect or alter the trajectory of asteroid 2024 YR4 before December 22, 2032. The mission must be officially announced and launched - planning or proposals alone do not count. The market resolves NO if no deflection mission is launched by the resolution date.

Considerations

• The asteroid's risk assessment may change significantly during observation windows in 2025 and 2028

• Any deflection attempt would likely require international cooperation and coordination

• The DART mission in 2022 demonstrated that asteroid deflection is technically feasible

• The decision to attempt deflection will depend on continued monitoring and risk assessment by organizations like IAWN and SMPAG

• Update 2025-02-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Failed Launches Count:

  • If a mission is officially announced and a rocket is launched but fails during the launch process, it will count as an attempt to deflect asteroid 2024 YR4 and resolve YES.

• Update 2025-02-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Failed launch attempts count as a deflection attempt.

  • No successful deflection is required for a YES resolution; the official launch of a mission intended to deflect or alter the trajectory of asteroid 2024 YR4 is sufficient.