Background

The Insurrection Act of 1807 allows the U.S. president to deploy military and federalized National Guard troops within the United States to suppress civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion. During his first term, President Trump threatened to invoke the Act during the 2020 Black Lives Matter protests but ultimately did not. His allies have reportedly discussed potentially invoking it on his first day in office if he were re-elected.

Trump has campaigned on increased militarization of law enforcement and using the military for domestic priorities such as border control and addressing civil unrest. In campaign speeches, he has referenced using the military against the "enemy from within," though the specific meaning of this phrase remains subject to interpretation.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve as YES if Donald Trump invokes the Insurrection Act at any point during his second presidential term (January 20, 2025 - January 20, 2029).

Considerations

The Insurrection Act has been used rarely in modern times. The last significant use was by President George H.W. Bush during the 1992 Los Angeles riots. Any invocation would likely face legal challenges and significant public debate about presidential authority and the appropriate role of the military in domestic affairs.